OECD of Mexico

Real GDP for the last 10 years:

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp

Real GDP per capita for the last 10 years:

    2021: 10080.00 USD

    2020: 9800.00 USD

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp-per-capita#:~:text=GDP%20per%20capita%20in%20Mexico%20is%20expected%20to%20reach%209800.00,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models.

Real GDP growth per year for the last 10 years:

    2021: 3.53%

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp-per-capita#:~:text=GDP%20per%20capita%20in%20Mexico%20is%20expected%20to%20reach%209800.00,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/mexico#:~:text=The%20GDP%20figure%20in%202020,million%20with%20respect%20to%202019.

Unemployment Rate:

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/unemployment-rate

Inflation Rate: 

    2021: 3.26%

    2020: 3.4%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/275414/inflation-rate-in-mexico/

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MEX/mexico/inflation-rate-cpi

Current Account Balance:

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/current-account

Hidden Economy % of GDP:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Mexico/shadow_economy/#:~:text=Mexico%3A%20Shadow%20economy%2C%20percent%20of%20GDP&text=The%20average%20value%20for%20Mexico,on%20countries%20is%200.00%20percent.

Observations: Some statistics seem to correlate together, while others don't. For the ones that do correlate, an example would be when the GDP fell in 2021, the unemployment was high. This can be explained as GDP can be referred to as the total value of spending in a certain economy. If unemployment is high, then that means more people will be out of theirs jobs, and ultimately saving rather than spending more money. Some data that doesn't seem to correlate is the GDP and unemployment rate present during 2014. In 2014, the GDP was the highest its ever been in the past 10 years, however, their unemployment was extremely high. If there are more people unemployed, then how can there be more spending done in the economy? Wouldn't more people be trying to save their money? Moreover, when looking at the GDP of Mexico, one is able to tell the business cycle occurring over the past 10 years. In 2011, the market was in recovery until it hit a boom in 2014. This boom was then followed by a recession in 2015, and a trough in 2016. There was then another recovery that lasted until 2018, and then a boom occurred in 2019. As of 2021, there is still a recession in Mexico's business cycle. Furthermore, the long-term trend in GDP for the last 10 years is at a slow decline.

Changes in AS/LRAS

Education:

    In Mexico, there has been a large increase in computer science graduates. It is showed that around 130,000 people graduate with a computer science degree in Mexico every year. This number is continuing to grow, which is mainly due to the increase in tech-centered private and public universities.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/03/08/three-reasons-mexico-could-fill-the-us-talent-gap/?sh=56fda7a87037

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexico-is-now-a-top-producer-of-engineers-but-where-are-jobs/2012/10/28/902db93a-1e47-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_story.html

Birthrate:

The birthrate in Mexico has slowly declined from 2000 to 2020. 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MEX/mexico/birth-rate

Net Migration Rate:

    The net migration rate of Mexico in 2021 is -0.441. This means that there are more people leaving Mexico to go somewhere else than coming into the country. People could be leaving to find work, a better life, seek asylum, or for countless other reasons. 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MEX/mexico/net-migration#:~:text=The%20net%20migration%20rate%20for,a%209.13%25%20decline%20from%202017.

Analysis: The three types of data that I collected include education, birth rate, and net migration rate. Beginning with education, Mexico has opened many new tech-centered colleges. This increase in colleges has resulted in more computer science graduates to about 130,000 a year. Having more people professionally educated results in an outward shift of the LRAS curve because it is an improvement in the quality of labor. Moving on, the Mexican birth rate has decreased over the past 21 years, which results in a decrease in the quantity of labor. This will cause the LRAS to eventually shift inwards because of the likelihood that there will be fewer people in jobs in 20 or so years from now. Next, the net migration rate has slowly increased over the past 21 years, but it is still negative. This means that there are more people leaving Mexico to go somewhere else than coming into the country. More people leaving results in a decrease in the quantity of labor, and thus an inward shift of the LRAS. Furthermore, I think that the productive capacity of the Mexican economy will increase over time. Based on the large rise in computer science graduates, it is likely that there will be new technology that these graduates will develop, which will allow for an increase in output. However, even though more people are leaving Mexico than coming in and the birthrate is going down, which can decrease output, I still think that the productive capacity of the Mexican economy will increase as these two data points don't seem to outweigh the potentially large increase in output that could result from a rise in college-educated individuals.